CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001)

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter the full notification:

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2014-12-19T05:00:06Z
## Message ID: 20141219-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO.

Start time of the event: 2014-12-19T00:27Z.

Estimated speed: ~885 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -20/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).

Activity ID: 2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001

2: C-type CME detected by SOHO.

Start time of the event: 2014-12-19T01:04Z.

Estimated speed: ~544 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 14 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -90/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2014-12-19T01:04:00-CME-001

 
Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2014-12-21T07:38Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
  

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-12-19T00:27:00-CME-001, 2014-12-19T01:04:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141219_022800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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